An Inconvenient Reality: Climate-Preparedness Cuts Are Lethality Cuts

In 2019, the Missouri River flooded at historically high levels and damaged 137 facilities, destroyed 1.2 million square feet of workspace, and flooded 3,000 feet of runway at Offutt Air Force Base. Repairing the installation cost $1.2 billion. The Trump administration and Department of Defense justified $1.2 billion in budget reductions to the U.S.

Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Defense Department climate programs as cuts to “woke” climate or environmental initiatives, but a singular event caused sufficient damage to erase those savings. The lethality of American presence in the Pacific depends upon the resilience of bases, ports, and ranges against climate threats. Removing funding from the studies, modeling, and adaptation projects that keep forward installations operational does not redirect dollars to warfighting — it removes capability that warfighting requires. The National Defense Strategy calls on the military to “build, posture, and sustain a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain.” The First Island Chain experiences significant effects from the current climate­, such as intense rains and floods, high-intensity typhoons, and erosion that depletes island water supplies— and models project more severe effects in the future. A flooded airfield does not generate sorties. A failed breakwater does not sustain submarine operations. American warfighters can’t fight if they don’t have drinking water. Every program that increases installation resilience boosts lethality, and therefore every cut to such a program is a lethality cut. The first way budget cuts affect military readiness involves offices outside the Department of Defense. The Fiscal Year 2026 budget request reduced National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration funding for oceanographic studies and climate modeling by approximately 75 percent. The request also eliminated $564 million from the U.S. While the Department of Defense currently uses Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year floodplain data for facilities planning (as required by Executive Order 11988 from 1977), the deficiencies in that data are well documented.

Key points

• Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Defense Department climate programs as cuts to “woke” climate or environmental initiatives, but a singular event caused suffi…
• The lethality of American presence in the Pacific depends upon the resilience of bases, ports, and ranges against climate threats.
• Removing funding from the studies, modeling, and adaptation projects that keep forward installations operational does not redirect dollars to warfighting — it removes capability that warfighting re…
• The National Defense Strategy calls on the military to “build, posture, and sustain a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain.” The First Island Chain experiences significant effects fro…
• A flooded airfield does not generate sorties.