Belarus protests failed to topple Lukashenko – now we should try Finland-style neutrality

Solitary confinement gives one ample time to think – to revisit decisions, question assumptions, and confront hard truths. Locked away, facing a 20-year sentence for defying Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko, I often pondered the 2020 presidential campaign, when thousands of my compatriots took to the streets to demand a free and fair election, one that could possibly topple our dictator. Belarusians protested courageously, creatively, peacefully, and on a massive scale.

There was enormous solidarity, and – for a moment – a sense of hope that this odious regime would finally collapse. But hope is not a strategy, and five years of imprisonment helped me understand that courage alone cannot free Belarus from authoritarianism. What Belarus needs now is a pragmatic path to a democratic future. In the end, the Lukashenko regime held onto power despite the mass protests, propped up by the sheer brutality of its security apparatus and outside help from Moscow. By 2021, it had imprisoned thousands of people (hundreds of whom remain behind bars), closed hundreds of NGOs across the country, and helped wage a hybrid war against the West, including by smuggling migrants from the Middle East and pushing them onto the border with EU countries. In 2022, it helped Russia launch the war against Ukraine. During my imprisonment, I did not know whether I would ever taste freedom again. But now that I am free once more, I feel a responsibility to share what I have learned from past mistakes. I believe the opposition in Belarus made three strategic errors: First, we confused mobilisation with power. We believed that if enough people filled the streets, the system would collapse under its own weight. History rarely works that way. Authoritarian systems are not defeated simply because society rejects them.

Key points

• There was enormous solidarity, and – for a moment – a sense of hope that this odious regime would finally collapse.
• But hope is not a strategy, and five years of imprisonment helped me understand that courage alone cannot free Belarus from authoritarianism.
• What Belarus needs now is a pragmatic path to a democratic future.
• In the end, the Lukashenko regime held onto power despite the mass protests, propped up by the sheer brutality of its security apparatus and outside help from Moscow.
• By 2021, it had imprisoned thousands of people (hundreds of whom remain behind bars), closed hundreds of NGOs across the country, and helped wage a hybrid war against the West, including by smuggli…