Capital concentration

Across the Baltics and the Balkans, shrinking countries are betting everything on one major city. Entire regions risk being left in limbo. Adrian Nikolov of the Institute for Market Economics, a Sofia think-tank, published his annual regional analysis in February.

Bulgaria’s capital, he reported, generated 46 billion euros in 2024, or 44 per cent of national GDP. Only one other region, Stara Zagora, sat above the country’s average GDP per capita. The gap between Sofia and the rest, slightly under threefold in 2000, has since widened to more than fivefold. Most of the 25-year increase in regional inequality, Nikolov noted, can be put down to a single city pulling away. Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute released its end-of-year population figures in April. The country had 6,423,207 residents at the end of 2025, down 14,153 in a year, with deaths nearly double births. Five regions out of 28 grew at all; only the south-west, which contains Sofia, grew at the national level. The north-west, Bulgaria’s poorest corner, now holds just 10.1 per cent of the population. Sofia city alone holds 20.3 per cent. Riga has run a similar trick on a smaller stage. Latvia’s Central Statistical Bureau reported in August 2025 that the population had fallen to 1.83 million by mid-year, down 26,500 in six months. The capital still holds about 605,000 of those people, around a third of the total, and produces 46.3 per cent of national GDP.

Key points

• Bulgaria’s capital, he reported, generated 46 billion euros in 2024, or 44 per cent of national GDP.
• Only one other region, Stara Zagora, sat above the country’s average GDP per capita.
• The gap between Sofia and the rest, slightly under threefold in 2000, has since widened to more than fivefold.
• Most of the 25-year increase in regional inequality, Nikolov noted, can be put down to a single city pulling away.
• Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute released its end-of-year population figures in April.