China Needs North Korea on Side

South Korean media recently reported that Chinese security and protocol personnel have already arrived in Pyongyang to make preparations, and that Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit North Korea in late May or early June. China hasn’t yet confirmed the trip, but a visit is both overdue and, from Xi’s perspective, necessary. As close as Beijing and Pyongyang are on paper, relations between the two behind the scenes are often tense; China has never quite accepted North Korea’s status as a nucle

Xi last paid a state visit to Pyongyang in June 2019, nearly seven years ago. Even after deducting the three years of the pandemic, that’s a long delay, and in that time Xi has visited many countries—including South Korea. Even more foreign leaders have come to China, ranging from Cuban and Venezuelan leaders to, in the last few weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. There have been a fair number of visitors to Pyongyang, too, from Putin to Vietnam’s To Lam . A gap in diplomatic protocol is itself a political signal. And because North Korea is so closed off from the world, China-North Korea diplomacy is inherently out of the ordinary. While the two are both communist states with a history of mutual support, and North Korea is China’s only formal treaty ally, the friendship “ forged in blood ” is more fragile than it seems. Xi’s long delay in visiting reflects that Beijing has never fully digested the reality that North Korea is now a de facto nuclear-armed state, and this has become a major obstacle to the development of deeper relations between the two countries. North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons, while China’s long-standing external policy has been the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. For North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantee of regime security and North Korea’s only bargaining chip to escape the fate of a small state and negotiate with the United States. Asking him to give up nuclear weapons is tantamount to asking him to give up regime security.

Key points

• Xi last paid a state visit to Pyongyang in June 2019, nearly seven years ago.
• Even after deducting the three years of the pandemic, that’s a long delay, and in that time Xi has visited many countries—including South Korea.
• Even more foreign leaders have come to China, ranging from Cuban and Venezuelan leaders to, in the last few weeks, U.S.
• President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• There have been a fair number of visitors to Pyongyang, too, from Putin to Vietnam’s To Lam .