A heatwave in Europe may have killed around 20,000 people, according to an early estimate.
Key facts
- •The estimated death toll from the heatwave is between 17,000 and 25,000 people.
- •The heatwave occurred from 22 to 28 June 2026.
- •The estimated death toll includes 5210 deaths in France, 4543 in Germany, 3163 in Spain, 2709 in Germany, and 862 in the UK.
- •The World Health Organization reported over 1300 excess deaths on 28 June.
- •Experts think the actual number of deaths may be higher due to incomplete data.
Europe's recent heatwave may have killed between 17,000 and 25,000 people, with an estimated 20,390 deaths, according to a preliminary estimate. The heatwave occurred from 22 to 28 June 2026. The estimate is based on a study correlating temperature and mortality rates across Europe.
By the numbers
Estimate methodology
The estimate is based on a study published last year by Christopher Callahan's team at Indiana University. The team correlated temperature and mortality data across Europe to infer the impact of the heatwave on mortality. Callahan says the numbers are preliminary and highlight the need for rapid adaptation investments to avoid such impacts in the future.
Comparison to reported deaths
The estimated death toll is higher than the direct counts announced so far. For example, on 28 June, the World Health Organization reported over 1300 excess deaths. However, this number is based on incomplete data, and mortality is expected to be higher than these initial figures suggest.
Expert opinions
Other experts have expressed caution about the estimate, suggesting that Callahan may have overestimated the numbers. Dann Mitchell at the University of Bristol thinks the number seems very large, while Marcin Walkowiak at Poznań University of Medical Sciences suggests that adaptations such as increased access to air conditioning may have reduced the number of deaths.
This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by New Scientist.
