Russia and China’s ‘No-Limits’ Trade Partnership Is Losing Steam

On his visit to China this week, President Vladimir Putin touted Russia’s “no-limits” cooperation with Beijing, Moscow’s key trade partner and a critical economic lifeline since its rupture with the West in 2022. And judging by the lavish welcome the Russian leader received in the Chinese capital, one might think the relationship has nowhere to go but up. Yet despite Putin and Xi Jinping’s proclamations of an ever-deepening partnership, analysts say the two countries may be approaching the limit

China has largely replaced Europe as a supplier of manufactured goods and a buyer of Russian energy exports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That has helped bilateral trade soar 55% between 2021 and 2025, surpassing the two countries’ shared target of $200 billion set in 2019. Bilateral trade fell 7% to $227.6 billion in 2025, marking the first decline since the pandemic year of 2020. Russian exports to China dropped 3.9% to $124.8 billion, while Chinese shipments to Russia fell more sharply, declining 10.4% to $103.3 billion, according to Chinese customs data. The decline affected bilateral trade across the board. The value of Russian oil exports to China, which account for about half of Russia’s exports to the country, dropped 20%, while petroleum products fell 33% and coal declined 27%. Chinese exports of passenger cars to Russia fell 44%, truck exports dropped 67%, telecom equipment declined 27% and computer shipments fell 31%. Analysts attributed the downturn to lower global oil prices , China’s efforts to diversify energy imports and Moscow’s push for Chinese firms to localize production with moves like hiking its vehicle recycling fee, a de facto tax on imported cars. This year has seen a more reassuring start to Russia-China trade, something officials in Moscow were keen to trumpet ahead of Putin’s visit to Beijing this week. Total Russia-China trade rose 20% year-on-year in January-April to $85.24 billion. Russian exports climbed 17% to $47.7 billion, while Chinese exports rose 23% to $37.8 billion. The recovery was driven in part by disruption in Middle East energy markets caused by the Iran war effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies pass.

Key points

• China has largely replaced Europe as a supplier of manufactured goods and a buyer of Russian energy exports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• That has helped bilateral trade soar 55% between 2021 and 2025, surpassing the two countries’ shared target of $200 billion set in 2019.
• Bilateral trade fell 7% to $227.6 billion in 2025, marking the first decline since the pandemic year of 2020.
• Russian exports to China dropped 3.9% to $124.8 billion, while Chinese shipments to Russia fell more sharply, declining 10.4% to $103.3 billion, according to Chinese customs data.
• The decline affected bilateral trade across the board.