The Premier League title is Arsenal’s to lose. But pressure does strange things to teams | Jonathan

T he title race should be done. All logic says it’s already over. Arsenal lead Manchester City by two points which means two wins in their final two games of the season would seal the title – and those two games are tonight against Burnley, who have been relegated, and, on Sunday against Crystal Palace, who will be preparing for the Europa Conference League final three days later.

It’s hard, frankly, to imagine a better pair of fixtures for Mikel Arteta’s side to play at this stage of the season. On Tuesday they play away at Bournemouth, who are still fighting for Champions League qualification, whether by claiming fifth above Liverpool, or by taking sixth and hoping Villa win the Europa League but finish fifth. (It makes little sense but, under Uefa regulations, if Villa finish fourth and win the Europa League, there would be no sixth Champions League slot for Premier League clubs.) Man City finish at home against Aston Villa , who will just have returned from Istanbul and a Europa League final. All sorts of specious psychological theories are applied to these end-of-season games. Do teams with little or nothing left to play for put in the same effort? Or do they perhaps play with a greater freedom? Palace manager Oliver Glasner, whose side lost 3-0 to City last week, was explicit in saying his first duty is to do what is right for his club; putting on a good title race is not his responsibility. Villa’s Unai Emery, in similar vein, rested players earlier this month against Tottenham before his team’s second leg of the Europa League semi-final; Spurs won that game and clambered above West Ham in the race against relegation as a consequence. That is the right, the privilege even, of clubs who have achieved their principal goals; in that Glasner is surely right. It’s a quirk of the calendar and inevitable in any league system – which is why random fixture generation within certain parameters, mainly to do with safety and the demands on police forces, is essential, why the Premier League was right to stick to its protocols on rearranging games in this crowded climax to the season despite the frustration of City, and why rearranging fixtures to give sides free weekends before big European games, as the French league did for Paris Saint-Germain, undermines the integrity of the competition. But if Glasner does rest players before Palace’s game in Leipzig against Rayo Vallecano, perhaps the fresher reserves, desperate to claim a place in the side for the final, will overperform. Perhaps Villa, elevated by European glory or inspired by the fury of defeat, will reach new heights.

Key points

• It’s hard, frankly, to imagine a better pair of fixtures for Mikel Arteta’s side to play at this stage of the season.
• On Tuesday they play away at Bournemouth, who are still fighting for Champions League qualification, whether by claiming fifth above Liverpool, or by taking sixth and hoping Villa win the Europa Le…
• (It makes little sense but, under Uefa regulations, if Villa finish fourth and win the Europa League, there would be no sixth Champions League slot for Premier League clubs.) Man City finish at hom…
• All sorts of specious psychological theories are applied to these end-of-season games.
• Do teams with little or nothing left to play for put in the same effort?