Why the Quad Was Doomed From the Start

After failing to hold its leaders’ summit last year in India, the Quad —comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—will now meet at the foreign minister level during U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to the country from May 23 to 26. Meanwhile, the leaders’ summit scheduled for later this year in Australia remains uncertain.

There’s a perceptible sense that the Quad is fading away. Originally founded in 2007 to counter China, the Quad became moribund after Australia developed cold feet . When he was first sworn in as president in 2017, Donald Trump moved quickly to revive the grouping. Nearly a decade on, why is the Quad stumbling? The recent deterioration in the U.S.-India relationship is clearly the proximate cause. That deterioration, in turn, is partly due to the Trump administration’s extreme policy volatility . But more fundamentally, the Quad’s current woes are rooted in the grouping’s structural flaws and limitations. Quite simply, the Quad’s failure was baked into its design. Founded with the aim of countering a fast-rising China, the Quad always remained reticent about this goal. Its joint statements have never mentioned China by name, though criticisms of Beijing’s policies such as maritime coercion are always implicitly among its assertions . ally in the grouping, India is understandably hesitant on needlessly provoking its giant neighbor, with which it had two serious military encounters in 2017 and 2020. But much more significant than the coyness about China is the Quad’s confusion about its core identity.

Key points

• There’s a perceptible sense that the Quad is fading away.
• Originally founded in 2007 to counter China, the Quad became moribund after Australia developed cold feet .
• When he was first sworn in as president in 2017, Donald Trump moved quickly to revive the grouping.
• Nearly a decade on, why is the Quad stumbling?
• The recent deterioration in the U.S.-India relationship is clearly the proximate cause.