A historic El Niño is suppressing tropical development, making a new record for the latest start to the Atlantic hurricane season likely.
Key facts
- •The Atlantic hurricane season has reached its climatological peak without a single hurricane forming.
- •A strong, historic El Niño is currently suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic.
- •The previous record for the latest hurricane-free start to a season is September 11.
- •Only five tropical storms have been recorded this year, compared to an average of eight by this date.
- •There are no indications of hurricane development in the Atlantic basin for the next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season is on track to set a record for the latest date without a hurricane forming in the modern satellite era. Despite this week marking the climatological peak of the season, no hurricanes have developed in the basin. A strengthening El Niño is identified as the primary factor stifling tropical development.
Comparison to Average Seasons
In a typical year, the Atlantic basin would have already seen eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes by this point in the season. So far this year, there have been only five named tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
Record-Breaking Timeline
The current record for the latest date without an Atlantic hurricane forming is September 11, established in both 2002 and 2013. With no signs of tropical development expected in the near future, the current season is poised to surpass this mark, setting a new record for the satellite era, which dates back to the 1960s.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by BBC Science & Environment.
