China fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile from the South China Sea, prompting speculation about its intentions.

China fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile from the South China Sea at 12:01 p.m. local time on July 6. The missile flew roughly 4,500 miles before splashing down near the Solomon Islands. This test was the first of its kind in decades and involved a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Technical Reasons for the Test

China has compelling technical reasons to conduct SLBM tests. Although Beijing has pursued a sea-based nuclear deterrent since the 1960s, its first ballistic missile submarine suffered from significant technical problems and rarely went to sea. The more capable Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was deployed in the 2000s, and its submarines began conducting regular patrols with nuclear warheads in 2015.

Geographic Constraints

China's access to the broader Pacific is blocked by the first island chain, consisting of Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, which constrains its ability to test long-range missiles without overflying nearby countries. As a result, China rarely tests long-range missiles over the Pacific and instead operates its nuclear submarines in heavily defended areas in the South China Sea and the Bohai Sea.

China's Public Messaging

China's public messaging downplayed the test's significance. The PLA Navy described the launch as 'a routine arrangement of the annual training of the PLA Navy' and stated that it 'complies with international law and international practice, and is not directed at any specific country or target.' A Foreign Ministry spokesperson also said that the exercise was part of regular military training and was not aimed at any specific country or target.