A strengthening El Nino, combined with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, poses new risks to global food supplies and inflation.
Key facts
- •The US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration predicts a 63% chance that this year's El Nino will be very strong.
- •Berkeley Earth projects this El Nino could be the strongest on record, with Pacific temperatures expected to rise by 3.6 degrees Celsius.
- •The UN reports that 266 million people currently face acute hunger, largely due to conflict-related displacement and infrastructure damage.
- •JP Morgan predicts that if multiple crises converge, food inflation could surpass 5% by 2027.
- •The FAO notes that global food prices are currently nearly 20% lower than their 2022 peak.
A potentially record-strength El Nino is intensifying across the Pacific, threatening to disrupt global farming through drought and flooding. This weather pattern arrives alongside ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which have already impacted energy costs and agricultural logistics. Experts warn that the convergence of these factors could exacerbate food insecurity and inflation in the coming months.
By the numbers
Weather and Agricultural Impacts
The World Bank has warned that El Nino could reduce rice output by 20% to 50% in affected regions. India, which produces nearly one-third of the world's rice, has already experienced approximately 40% less rainfall than normal in June. The FAO identifies the Sahel region, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America's Dry Corridor as areas facing a greater than 50% chance of drought in the near term.
Geopolitical and Economic Pressures
Conflict in Ukraine continues to threaten grain exports, while instability in the Middle East has driven up energy and fertilizer prices. Approximately one-third of global fertilizer typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains disrupted by regional tensions. JP Morgan has warned that the combination of El Nino and $100 oil prices could increase food inflation by up to 1.5%, with potential for higher spikes if conditions worsen.
Current State of Global Hunger
Despite geopolitical challenges, global food prices remain nearly 20% below their 2022 peak, supported by record grain harvests last year. However, the UN reports that 266 million people currently face acute hunger, with more than half of these cases attributed to conflict. Experts note that while global calorie production is sufficient, distribution remains a significant challenge, particularly in areas like Sudan, Yemen, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Deutsche Welle Business.
