El Niño may be the strongest in 140 years, affecting Southeast Asia's food supply and prices

This year's El Niño is underway and may be the strongest in 140 years, hitting Southeast Asia hard with heat waves, drought, wildfires, and increased typhoon risk. The region is already facing higher prices due to the Iran war, and El Niño will intensify this.

El Niño's Impact

The Asia-Pacific region will be the worst-affected, with Thailand and Vietnam being the world's second and third-largest exporters of rice. Indonesia and Malaysia produce 85 percent of the world's palm oil. Rice yields in the region could fall between 2 to 8 percent. The Philippines and Timor Leste are particularly high-risk countries, with droughts and floods affecting staple crops.

Country-Specific Effects

Thailand received 60 percent less rain than normal between January and April, and the Bangkok export price for rice reached $490 per metric ton at the end of June, up 27.5 percent since the start of 2026. In Cambodia, over 100,000 hectares of rice fields have been affected by drought. Indonesia has experienced drought in key population centers since June, with its Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency predicting a longer-than-normal dry season for roughly half the country.

Rohingya Deportation

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that Myanmar had agreed to accept the return of 5,000 Rohingya asylum-seekers, prompting shock given the Rohingya would be returned to the hands of a government that committed genocide against them. The deal has prompted a clash with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which stated that current conditions do not support the safe and sustainable return of refugees from Myanmar.

Aung San Suu Kyi

Aung San Suu Kyi met with a representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross, and the junta released a photo showing her shaking hands with the representative. The event seems geared to lay to rest growing speculation about her health and well-being.