Major global investment banks have increased their 2026 economic growth outlook for South Korea, driven by a robust semiconductor market.
Key facts
- •The median 2026 growth forecast for South Korea by major foreign institutions reached 3.5 percent in September.
- •Growth projections have been rising steadily since April 2026, starting from a 2 percent average at the end of 2025.
- •JP Morgan projects 4 percent growth for South Korea this year, while Citi forecasts 3.8 percent.
- •The 2027 economic growth forecast by foreign investment banks was raised to 2.8 percent.
- •The upward revisions are attributed to expectations that the global semiconductor cycle will remain stronger than previously anticipated.
Major global investment banks have upgraded their economic growth forecasts for South Korea, citing a strong and resilient semiconductor cycle. According to a report by the Korea Center for International Finance, the median growth forecast for 2026 rose to 3.5 percent in September, up from 3.3 percent in August.
By the numbers
Upward Trend in Economic Outlook
Foreign institutions have been consistently raising their growth projections for the South Korean economy since April 2026. At the end of 2025, the average forecast was 2 percent, which gradually climbed to 2.1 percent in January, 2.4 percent in April, and 2.8 percent in May.
Individual Bank Projections
Several major investment banks have adjusted their specific outlooks. JP Morgan now expects the South Korean economy to grow by 4 percent this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Citi raised its forecast to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent, while UBS increased its projection to 3.5 percent from 2.8 percent. Additionally, foreign investment banks have raised their collective growth forecast for 2027 to 2.8 percent, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the prior month.
Timeline
- End of 2025The average growth forecast for the Korean economy stood at 2 percent.
- January 2026The average growth forecast rose to 2.1 percent.
- April 2026The average growth forecast rose to 2.4 percent.
- May 2026The average growth forecast rose to 2.8 percent.
- August 2026The median growth forecast by major foreign institutions was 3.3 percent.
- September 2026The median growth forecast by major foreign institutions was raised to 3.5 percent.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Yonhap News, The Korea Times.
