Powerful Shia paramilitary groups are defying an Iraqi government mandate to restrict all weapons to state control by the end of September.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is facing a political and security crisis as a September 30 deadline to bring all weapons under state control approaches. While some groups have agreed to integrate into the state’s armed forces, several powerful Shia paramilitaries are openly rejecting the government’s mandate.

Paramilitary Groups Defy Mandate

Kataib Hezbollah has explicitly rejected the government's order, stating it intends to retain its "resistance weapons" and expand its arsenal. Similarly, the group Harakat al-Nujaba has argued that the government's disarmament efforts should focus on illegal weapons causing chaos rather than those held by its fighters. Some factions justify their continued possession of arms by citing the presence of U.S. troops and external threats.

Economic and Political Pressure

The disarmament push is driven by U.S. pressure and the urgent need for Iraq to attract foreign investment. The country is currently facing significant economic strain, as oil exports dropped to approximately 600,000 barrels per day in March due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, down from 3.3 million barrels per day. Analysts warn that the government faces a choice between establishing a strong state with centralized control of weapons or potentially facing international sanctions and a ban on oil exports.

Uncertain Path Forward

Experts suggest the government may be forced to extend the deadline to December to avoid an immediate confrontation. Potential outcomes for the crisis include the integration of armed groups into state institutions, a gradual process of dialogue, or a direct confrontation. Some observers, including professor Talib Mohammed Karim, have expressed skepticism regarding the groups that have already agreed to disarm, suggesting these actions may be performative.