Researchers are working to enhance space weather predictions to protect vital infrastructure like power grids and satellites from solar activity.

The UK Met Office operates a 24-hour space weather prediction team to monitor solar activity that can disrupt Earth's power grids, satellites, and GPS. To improve forecasting capabilities, the agency has partnered with a research group led by Aberystwyth University. This initiative aims to better predict solar events and provide earlier warnings to infrastructure operators, as severe space weather is now included in the UK government's National Risk Register.

The Challenge of Solar Forecasting

Space weather, including intense solar flares, is driven by activity on the Sun. While scientists can track events on the Sun's surface three days before they reach Earth, there is currently a monitoring gap until the activity reaches satellites about one million miles away. This leaves only about one hour to refine predictions and warn partners of potential disruptions.

Mitigating Risks to Infrastructure

The Met Office has collaborated with infrastructure operators since 2014 to manage risks. Professor Huw Morgan, who leads the research project alongside Northumbria, Durham, and Reading universities, noted that improved warnings allow the National Grid to prepare for potential power cuts and airlines to adjust flight paths. The Sun follows an 11-year activity cycle, having reached its peak, or Solar Maximum, in 2024.

Historical Context and Future Concerns

The 1859 Carrington Event, which disrupted early telegraph networks, serves as the benchmark for a worst-case scenario. Experts warn that a similar event today would have significantly greater consequences due to modern society's reliance on technology. Beyond Earth, radiation also poses risks to astronauts, who may experience visual flashes from cosmic rays when outside the protection of the Earth's magnetic field.