Tipster Lewis Jones provides betting insights and analysis for upcoming Premier League fixtures.
Key facts
- •Chelsea has conceded more set-piece goals than any other Premier League team this season.
- •Manchester City's expected-points model suggests they have overperformed by approximately seven points.
- •Leeds United has secured 29 points at home since December 2025.
- •Newcastle United has conceded 36 goals in 20 home matches across all competitions this calendar year.
- •Hull City has lost only one of its six Premier League matches this season.
Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, has released his betting analysis for the upcoming Premier League weekend. The predictions cover various matches, including Brentford versus Liverpool and Newcastle United against Aston Villa, focusing on statistical trends and team performance metrics.
By the numbers
Defensive Vulnerabilities and Set Pieces
Chelsea has conceded seven goals from set pieces this season, the highest in the Premier League. Since the start of last season, they have conceded at a rate of 0.53 goals per 90 minutes from such situations. Meanwhile, Newcastle United faces a potential club record of 16 consecutive home games without a clean sheet if they concede against Aston Villa.
Team Performance Trends
Manchester City is currently overperforming its expected-goals metrics, with models suggesting they should have seven fewer points than they have collected. Conversely, Hull City has lost only one of its six Premier League matches this season, despite market perceptions. Leeds United has demonstrated strong form, collecting 45 points from 31 Premier League games since December 2025.
Player Performance and Market Opportunities
James Tarkowski is highlighted as a goalscoring threat for Everton due to his involvement in set pieces. Pascal Gross has scored four goals for Brighton this season and serves as a penalty taker. Additionally, Johan Manzambi has recorded 13 shots in his last three starts for Aston Villa, scoring twice.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Sky Sports Football.
