A new briefing by climate analyst Ketan Joshi estimates the human mortality impact of emissions resulting from the oil and gas sold by Equinor in 2025.

A briefing published Tuesday by Oslo-based climate analyst Ketan Joshi estimates that burning the oil and gas sold by Norwegian energy company Equinor in 2025 will result in between 34,000 and 58,000 additional deaths by the end of the century. The report, commissioned by the non-profit Klimakultur, utilizes climate-economy-mortality models and Equinor’s own sustainability data to calculate these figures.

Methodology and Calculations

Joshi calculated the mortality estimate by multiplying Equinor’s reported 2025 emissions from customer product use—257.8 megatonnes of CO2-equivalent—by a “mortality cost of carbon.” This metric is based on a 2021 paper by Columbia University economist Daniel Bressler, which estimated 226 temperature-related excess deaths per megatonne of CO2 emitted. When applying this methodology to all products sold by Equinor since 2018, which totals 2,000 megatonnes, the briefing estimates between 260,000 and 450,000 deaths in the coming decades.

Context on Climate-Related Mortality

The report acknowledges that there is inherent uncertainty in assigning precise death tolls to fossil fuel emissions. However, the briefing highlights the broader impact of heatwaves, noting that WHO regional director for Europe Hans Kluge stated in June that heat has claimed over 200,000 lives across the EU and associated countries in the past four years. Official figures cited for this summer’s heatwave include 14,000 deaths in Germany and 7,300 in France through the end of July.