Escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea are causing shipping bottlenecks, leading to a significant drop in Russian grain exports.

Russian grain exports are projected to hit a decade low in August due to severe shipping congestion in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Industry analysts attribute the decline to escalating attacks on commercial vessels, which have disrupted logistics and caused foreign buyers to retreat due to rising costs.

Export Projections and Market Impact

Agricultural consultancy SovEcon estimates Russia will export between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons of wheat this month, significantly lower than the five-year August average of 5 million tons. ProZerno, an independent consultancy, forecasts total grain exports will fall to nearly 2.5 million metric tons, compared to a five-year average of 5.7 million tons. The resulting export logjam has created an oversupply in Russia's domestic market, causing local prices to drop by up to 450 rubles ($5.46) per ton over the past week. Conversely, global wheat prices have risen as a result of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine involving attacks on agricultural export facilities and vessels.

Production Estimates and Policy Changes

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies has lowered its 2026 grain harvest forecast from 140 million to 138.5 million metric tons and reduced its total export capacity estimate for the 2026–27 season from 61.5 million to 60 million tons. Despite these challenges, the Russian Agriculture Ministry announced an increase in the wheat export tax for the week of August 12–18. The ministry reported that nationwide grain production has reached over 72 million metric tons, with wheat accounting for more than 60 million tons of that total.