US military forces are scheduled to depart their final bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending a two-decade presence and raising concerns about regional security and the influence of Iran-backed groups.
Key facts
- •Approximately 4,500 American service members died in Iraq during the two decades of conflict.
- •The US-led coalition withdrawal was agreed upon in 2024 under the Biden administration.
- •US forces previously withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011 but returned in 2014 to combat the Islamic State.
- •Seven of the 18 US service members killed in the recent war against Iran were stationed in Iraq.
- •Iraqi security officials report that Islamic State sleeper cells have shown increased activity since the withdrawal announcement.
US forces are preparing to exit their remaining bases in Iraq by Wednesday, concluding a military presence that spanned more than two decades. The withdrawal, agreed upon in 2024, is being framed by Iran and its regional allies as a strategic victory. While the departure is broadly popular among Iraqis, security analysts and local leaders warn that the move could create a power vacuum, potentially empowering Iran-backed militias and allowing Islamic State sleeper cells to regroup.
By the numbers
Strategic Implications and Regional Influence
Security analysts suggest the withdrawal removes a significant counterweight to Iranian influence in Iraq. Pro-Iranian militia groups have described the exit as a historic defeat for the American project and intend to use the momentum to increase their role in Iraqi security and political decision-making. Conversely, some Iraqi officials and tribal leaders fear the country is not yet prepared to manage its own security, citing the risk of increased instability. Washington has previously accused Iran-backed militias of using Iraqi territory to launch attacks on neighboring countries, including a recent strike on a Saudi oil pipeline. The Iraqi government has stated it is working to limit the influence of these factions.
Concerns Over Islamic State Resurgence
Military and security officials, including those in the Kurdish region, warn that the loss of US intelligence, logistical support, and drone capabilities could provide an opening for Islamic State fighters. Despite the collapse of their caliphate nearly a decade ago, the group maintains a network of sleeper cells. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani noted increased movement by these cells following the announcement of the coalition's withdrawal. Additionally, Iraqi security forces reported that a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the departure, aiming to demonstrate that the group remains capable of conducting violent operations.
Timeline
- 2003US forces invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein.
- 2011US forces completed a withdrawal from Iraq.
- 2014-2017US forces returned to Iraq to help defeat the Islamic State.
- 2020The US killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport.
- September 30Pro-Iranian groups scheduled celebrations to mark the US withdrawal.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Kathmandu Post.
