European natural gas prices rose to their highest level since mid-March following renewed violence near the Strait of Hormuz.

European natural gas prices reached a four-month high this week as renewed conflict near the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about energy transport security. The benchmark Dutch TTF price briefly exceeded €60 per megawatt-hour on Monday and settled at €59 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday. This movement follows ten consecutive nights of U.S. strikes against Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions by Tehran against regional allies and tankers.

Market Impact and Geopolitical Risks

The current price of €59 per megawatt-hour marks a 50 percent increase compared to the previous month. Before a ceasefire in June, prices had remained below €50 per megawatt-hour. Market participants are increasingly concerned that regional instability is becoming a permanent feature of energy pricing, particularly as both Washington and Tehran discuss potential tolls on maritime traffic. Additional pressure on supplies stems from depleted European reserves and rising demand for air conditioning in Asia due to high summer temperatures. Furthermore, the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen has announced an embargo on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical waterway for energy shipments.

Expert Perspectives

Industry analysts suggest that the volatility in the region has fundamentally altered energy delivery reliability. Tobias Federico, a senior analyst at Montel Energy, noted that the unpredictable status of the Strait of Hormuz makes it an unreliable route for global LNG supplies. Alice Acuña, an executive at the Madrid-based company Moeve, stated that the price surge indicates geopolitical risk is now a structural reality for energy markets.