As Russia's offensive in Ukraine slows, rumors of a new mobilization persist despite Kremlin denials and ongoing efforts to recruit contract soldiers.

Speculation is mounting regarding a potential new wave of mobilization in Russia as the country's offensive in Ukraine faces delays. While the Kremlin has denied plans for a new draft, concerns remain due to the ongoing war and challenges in maintaining troop levels. Russia has previously relied on high salaries and signing bonuses to attract contract soldiers to replace battlefield losses.

Recruitment Challenges and Tactics

Russia has increasingly turned to aggressive recruitment tactics to bolster its forces. Reports indicate that authorities are pressuring university students, migrants, and those in financial hardship to sign military contracts. In the Penza region, security forces have conducted street raids to pressure men into enlisting. Despite these efforts, recruitment in Russia has reportedly fallen by one-third this year compared to 2025.

Legal and Administrative Preparedness

Experts suggest that Russia has established the necessary legal framework for a new mobilization. The 2022 presidential decree calling up reservists remains active, meaning authorities could potentially issue a new, possibly secret, order to increase troop numbers. Additionally, Russia has upgraded its military registration system, including electronic databases and new requirements for employers to report eligible citizens.

Expert Perspectives on Strategy

Military analysts remain divided on the necessity of a new draft. Some experts argue that current recruitment of approximately 30,000 people per month is sufficient to replace losses, while others note that the pool of potential recruits is limited. There is also uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of adding more personnel without corresponding improvements in command structures, equipment, and officer training.