A new agreement to import Russian diesel is unlikely to curb rising fuel costs due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions.
Key facts
- •US diesel prices have risen by about 60% over the past 12 months to $6.30 per gallon.
- •The US is currently the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for 15.4% of global exports in 2025.
- •Russia's share of global diesel exports has fallen to 9.5% amid refinery damage from drone attacks.
- •Roughly 80% of US diesel imports currently come from Canada.
- •Analysts describe the deal as having little potential to resolve supply bottlenecks caused by the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have reached an agreement for the US to import Russian diesel. Despite Trump's claims that the deal will cause prices to fall rapidly, experts suggest the impact will be minimal due to ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
By the numbers
Market Constraints and Geopolitical Factors
Experts attribute high diesel prices to production outages and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. While crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to approximately 13.5 million barrels per day, refined product volumes remain significantly lower than pre-war levels. Furthermore, Russia is currently facing domestic fuel shortages and is no longer the world's largest diesel exporter, a position now held by the United States.
Limited Impact of the Agreement
Analysts note that the volume of diesel involved in the deal is insufficient to meet US demand. The promised 2.2 million barrels would not cover a single day of US consumption, which stands at roughly 4 million barrels. Even the total announced volume of 35.8 million barrels would only satisfy about nine days of domestic demand. Additionally, experts warn that potential US export restrictions, which were previously considered but abandoned, would likely exacerbate shortages for buyers in the European Union and Latin America.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Deutsche Welle Business.
