A record-breaking El Niño event is shifting atmospheric patterns, causing droughts, floods, and wildfire risks while impacting global food supplies and temperatures.
Key facts
- •Sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific are projected to reach 4°C above normal by the end of the year.
- •India's monsoon rainfall is currently 15 per cent below average, impacting 60 per cent of the country's agricultural land.
- •Global rice production is expected to fall by 9 million tonnes in the 2026-27 period.
- •The Atlantic hurricane season has experienced its quietest start in nearly 40 years, with only three named storms.
- •Climate scientists predict that 2027 will be the hottest year ever observed due to the combination of El Niño and long-term warming.
A super El Niño climate phase has begun in the Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific projected to rise 4°C above normal by the end of the year. This event, which is already the strongest on record by some measures, is shifting atmospheric circulation patterns globally. The resulting weather extremes are expected to increase wildfire risks, disrupt agriculture, and contribute to projections that 2027 will be the hottest year ever observed.
By the numbers
Agricultural and Environmental Impacts
The shifting of the Walker circulation is causing dry conditions across South-East Asia, Australia, and Central America. In India, the weakest monsoon since 2009 has left rainfall 15 per cent below average, threatening rice production. Analysts project a 9-million-tonne drop in global rice output for 2026-27. Meanwhile, drought conditions have increased wildfire risks in the Amazon, Borneo, and Indonesia, where peatlands are releasing significant amounts of carbon dioxide.
Shifting Storm Patterns
El Niño is influencing tropical storm activity by intensifying high-level westerly winds, which creates wind shear that disrupts Atlantic hurricane formation. The Atlantic season has seen its quietest start in nearly 40 years, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting zero to two major hurricanes. Conversely, the eastward shift of convection in the Pacific allows storms making landfall in Asia to absorb more energy from the ocean.
Global Temperature Trends
The current El Niño is adding heat to a system already affected by decades of human-driven warming. Global average sea surface temperatures hit a new record on 26 August, an unusual timing for such a peak. Scientists anticipate that global temperature rises will exceed 1.5°C, and the event may be followed by a strong La Niña, which could introduce further environmental stress.
Timeline
- 1982-83A super El Niño caused the Great Fire of Borneo, destroying 36,000 square kilometres of rainforest.
- 2015-16A super El Niño displaced more than 100,000 people due to flooding in Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.
- 26 AugustGlobal average sea surface temperature reached a new record.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by New Scientist.
