A new study in The Astrophysical Journal proposes that the timing and intensity of solar maxima can be predicted by observing the sharp decline in sunspot activity.

A study by Sandra Chapman published in The Astrophysical Journal identifies a pattern in solar cycles where solar maxima end with a sharp cutoff in sunspot activity. This observation suggests that the number of sunspots at this specific decline point correlates with the intensity of the subsequent solar maximum. Researchers hope this method will improve the accuracy of predicting solar activity, which can impact modern technological infrastructure.

Predicting Future Solar Cycles

While solar cycles have been observed to follow an 11-year pattern since the 1800s, predicting the exact timing and intensity of solar maximum remains difficult. Chapman's research indicates that solar activity does not rise and fall smoothly, but rather experiences a distinct drop-off point. By analyzing this cutoff, researchers can better estimate the strength of the following cycle.

Current and Future Observations

The sun is currently in Cycle 25, which started in 2019 and is now past its peak. Activity is expected to decline until approximately 2030. Based on current data, the model predicts that Cycle 26 will be weaker than Cycle 25. The accuracy of this prediction will be tested in 2028, when the sun is expected to reach its next switch-off point, with final verification of the model expected by the mid- to late 2030s.