A record-breaking El Niño weather pattern is forecast to cause extreme drought in the Amazon, raising concerns about wildfires and the potential for a climate tipping point.
Key facts
- •The current El Niño is projected to be the most intense in modern history by a significant margin.
- •The Met Office forecasts a dangerous rainfall anomaly in the Amazon by January.
- •During the 2015-16 El Niño, wildfires destroyed 2.5 billion trees and plants.
- •The 2015-16 event resulted in the emission of 495 million tonnes of CO2.
- •Scientists warn that repeated severe droughts could cause the Amazon to transition into a savannah ecosystem.
A powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is projected to cause a severe drought across the Amazon. Scientists warn that this weather pattern, which is currently developing, could become the most intense in modern history, leading to dangerous rainfall deficits and elevated temperatures in the region.
By the numbers
Forecasts for the Amazon
The UK Met Office reports that a significant rainfall anomaly is expected to develop over the Amazon by January. Adam Scaife of the Met Office notes that very strong El Niño events concentrate heat near the South American coast, intensifying local impacts. This drought risk is compounded by rising air temperatures, which scientists warn could create a feedback loop of reduced moisture and further warming.
Historical Context and Tipping Points
Researchers are concerned that the current conditions could push the Amazon toward a climate tipping point where the rainforest ecosystem collapses into savannah. During the 2015-16 El Niño, extreme drought resulted in the destruction of approximately 2.5 billion trees and plants, while releasing 495 million tonnes of CO2. Tim Li of the University of Hawaii states that rainfall in the Amazon during the summer of 2026 was already lower than during previous major El Niño events.
Timeline
- 2015-16An extreme El Niño event caused massive wildfires and significant CO2 emissions in the Amazon.
- June, July and August 2026Rainfall in the Amazon was well below average as the current El Niño began.
- JanuaryThe Met Office forecasts a dangerous rainfall anomaly will develop over the Amazon.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by New Scientist.
