Long-range forecasts suggest more changeable weather for the UK in late summer, though temperatures are expected to remain above average with continued heatwave risks.

The second half of the UK summer may see more variable weather, with long-range forecasts indicating potential spells of rain. Despite this shift, temperatures are likely to remain above seasonal norms through late July and August, and the threat of further heatwaves persists.

Forecast Uncertainty and Trends

Computer weather models currently show mixed signals, leading to significant uncertainty in long-range predictions. Data from DTN suggests that low-pressure areas may become more prominent in Scotland and Northern Ireland over the coming weeks, while the Azores high pressure system remains nearby, potentially keeping conditions drier elsewhere. The Met Office indicates that high pressure may wane toward the end of July, which could lead to increased shower and thunderstorm activity spreading from the north.

Record-Breaking Summer Conditions

The summer of 2026 has already seen multiple heatwaves, with record-breaking temperatures occurring in May, June, and July. By July 15, the UK had recorded more days above 30C than in the entirety of 1976. Additionally, the country has reached 34C or higher on nine days this year, surpassing the previous record of eight days set in 1976. These conditions have been driven by persistent high pressure, dry ground, and higher-than-normal sea-surface temperatures.

Climate Context

The Met Office reports that the UK has warmed by approximately 0.25C per decade since the 1980s. Scientists attribute the increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves to human-induced warming, noting that weather once considered extreme is becoming the new normal.