Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, potentially ending a historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
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ManyPress Editorial
Key facts
- •Isaias is the ninth tropical storm of the 2026 Atlantic season but the first to reach hurricane potential.
- •The storm is forecast to make landfall between Friday and Saturday.
- •Hurricane and storm surge watches are in effect for the U.S. Gulf Coast.
- •El Niño-driven wind shear has suppressed hurricane activity throughout the season.
- •Rainfall could reach up to 10 inches in specific areas, creating risks for flash and river flooding.
Tropical Storm Isaias is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday. Forecasters anticipate the storm will intensify further before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida by the weekend. If it achieves hurricane status, it would mark the latest-forming first hurricane of an Atlantic season on record.
By the numbers
Forecast and Potential Impact
The U.S. National Hurricane Center projects Isaias could reach Category 2 strength with winds of 110 mph before weakening slightly as it approaches land. The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall, with totals ranging from 3 to 7 inches across the Gulf Coast, and up to 10 inches in some areas. Officials have issued hurricane and storm surge watches for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency across 25 counties.
Influence of El Niño
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been notably quiet, a trend meteorologists attribute to a strong El Niño pattern. This phenomenon increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean, which disrupts storm development. While the season was predicted to be below average, the absence of any hurricanes until now is historically significant, with the previous record for the latest-forming first hurricane set on October 8, 1905.
Timeline
- WednesdayTropical Storm Isaias was located in the Gulf of Mexico with winds up to 65 mph.
- ThursdayThe storm is expected to reach hurricane strength.
- Friday or SaturdayLandfall is expected along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Scientific American, Wired, BBC Science & Environment.
